Superdelegates could jump Clinton ship: James Robbins

But Democratic-establishment delegates not likely to ‘Feel the Bern’ unless Hillary faces an indictment.

Bernie Sanders supporters hope that Democratic superdelegates backing Hillary Clinton will see the error of their ways and switch sides, especially if Bernie wins big in Wisconsin Tuesday. But that’s unlikely. The superdelegate system is working exactly the way it was intended: to empower Democratic party insiders and beat down anti-establishment challengers.

Hillary Clinton holds a commanding 669 delegate lead over Bernie Sanders, 1739 to 1070 as estimated by The Green Papers. But most of her lead comes from the 473 theoretically unpledged super delegates who have lined up behind her. Take them out of the equation and the race is much tighter. Switch them to Sanders and he is the front-runner.

Clinton’s success at securing the support of party insiders was illustrated in last month’s results from Washington state. Bernie Sanders won a blowout victory with73% of the vote. Yet Clinton can claim 10 of the state’s 17 unpledged delegates, or almost 60%. Is this unfair? Yes, but it is unfairness by design.

There was a time, decades ago, when party nominating conventions were critical, deliberative meetings rather than scripted coronation ceremonies. In 1968 the Democratic candidates even had a debate at the convention itself. But in 1970 the party changed the rules to make state caucuses and primaries the primary vehicles for selecting nominees. The commission that rewrote the rules was chaired by ultra-liberal Sen. George McGovern, who not surprisingly won the 1972 nomination and went on to lose 49 states to Richard Nixon. Jimmy Carter, another party outsider, won the nomination in 1976, and faced a tough renomination challenge from Sen. Ted Kennedy in 1980. Carter won at the convention but lost in November to Ronald Reagan.

The fractious 1980 convention was blamed in part for the loss, and generated some nostalgia for the days of bossism and smoke-filled rooms. In January 1982, a party commission headed by Gov. James B. Hunt of North Carolina endorsed a rule establishing a role for elected officials to serve as uncommitted delegates at the 1984 Democratic National Convention. The idea was that in a closely contested race such as 1980, the wise men of the party could intervene and choose the most electable candidate, not necessarily the one most popular with grassroots activists.

Bernie Sanders supporters hope that Democratic superdelegates backing Hillary Clinton will see the error of their ways and switch sides, especially if Bernie wins big in Wisconsin Tuesday. But that’s unlikely. The superdelegate system is working exactly the way it was intended: to empower Democratic party insiders and beat down anti-establishment challengers.

Hillary Clinton holds a commanding 669 delegate lead over Bernie Sanders, 1739 to 1070 as estimated by The Green Papers. But most of her lead comes from the 473 theoretically unpledged super delegates who have lined up behind her. Take them out of the equation and the race is much tighter. Switch them to Sanders and he is the front-runner.

Clinton’s success at securing the support of party insiders was illustrated in last month’s results from Washington state. Bernie Sanders won a blowout victory with73% of the vote. Yet Clinton can claim 10 of the state’s 17 unpledged delegates, or almost 60%. Is this unfair? Yes, but it is unfairness by design.

There was a time, decades ago, when party nominating conventions were critical, deliberative meetings rather than scripted coronation ceremonies. In 1968 the Democratic candidates even had a debate at the convention itself. But in 1970 the party changed the rules to make state caucuses and primaries the primary vehicles for selecting nominees. The commission that rewrote the rules was chaired by ultra-liberal Sen. George McGovern, who not surprisingly won the 1972 nomination and went on to lose 49 states to Richard Nixon. Jimmy Carter, another party outsider, won the nomination in 1976, and faced a tough renomination challenge from Sen. Ted Kennedy in 1980. Carter won at the convention but lost in November to Ronald Reagan.

The fractious 1980 convention was blamed in part for the loss, and generated some nostalgia for the days of bossism and smoke-filled rooms. In January 1982, a party commission headed by Gov. James B. Hunt of North Carolina endorsed a rule establishing a role for elected officials to serve as uncommitted delegates at the 1984 Democratic National Convention. The idea was that in a closely contested race such as 1980, the wise men of the party could intervene and choose the most electable candidate, not necessarily the one most popular with grassroots activists.

The term “superdelegate” was coined by State Rep. Cleta Dethridge of Oklahoma to protest the move. In the party of radical equality, being super anything is an insult. Critics said that it gave too much power to a party structure that at the time was composed almost exclusively of white men, which even then was frowned on in liberal circles. But the superdelegates only composed a small fraction of the overall total and would only vote if the race was close enough to make a difference. In most cases, superdelegates are superfluous.

However, controversy and charges of unfairness have dogged the system ever since. In 1984, superdelegates helped insider Walter Mondale defeat Gary Hart’s insurgency, despite Hart’s attempt to get them to defect. In 1988, Jesse Jackson cried foul, claiming too many of the allegedly uncommitted delegates had pledged their support to Michael Dukakis too early in the process. In April 1992, poor showings by Bill Clinton in the Wisconsin and New York primaries kept many superdelegates on the sidelines, and there was speculation that the Democrats might face a brokered convention. It all sounds vaguely familiar.

Superdelegates lined up early behind Clinton in 2008 as well, but left the fold for Barack Obama as her campaign faltered. Sanders hopes that his recent momentum in the primaries and more favorable polling numbers will likewise convince party leaders that he is a safer bet for November. As well, superdelegates may be watching Clinton’s potential legal troubles with some concern. As one uncommitted California superdelegate, Mary Ellen Early, said of Hillary’s husband in 1992, “We live in a very volatile world, and incidents occur that could change the color of things overnight.” Clinton facing a Federal indictment would be all the pretext her superdelegates would need to begin feeling the Bern.

James S. Robbins is a member of the USA TODAY Board of Contributors and is the author of The Real Custer: From Boy General to Tragic Hero. In addition to its own editorials, USA TODAY publishes diverse opinions from outside writers, including our Board of Contributors.