North Korean blast invites Iran to test its own nuke: James Robbins
The clear message to Iran and other rogue states seeking nuclear weapons from North Korea’s claimed test of a hydrogen bomb is, go for it. No one is going to stop you.
On Wednesday, Pyongyang announced that it had successfully tested a hydrogen weapon which it called “the H-bomb of justice.” Seismic sensors confirmed that some sort of event had happened, though the U.S. government has not confirmed that it was a hydrogen bomb test. If true, the test would demonstrate a deadly quantum leap in North Korean nuclear technology and send a destabilizing message worldwide. In any case, another nuclear test of any sort is an affront to global order.
For decades, United States policy has been that a nuclear North Korea is “unacceptable.” Yet Washington keeps on accepting it. Prior to its first surprise nuclear test in 2006, the U.S. said it would not permit North Korea to have a nuclear weapon. After the test, the policy became to not let the Kim regime have any more nuclear weapons. And after subsequent tests in 2009 and 2013, the government played the same tape over and over. The White House says it is deeply concerned; the North Koreans say, you should be.
It is not as though the international community has done nothing, it has just done nothing effective. North Korea has been placed under a barrage of strong economic sanctions related to its nuclear program in the last few decades. It has been the subject of numerous multinational talks and several important agreements. But these measures failed. One of the poorest, most technologically backward countries in the world now seems to have joined the most elite, most deadly club on the planet. North Korea has proved that talk is cheap and sanctions are useless against a country determined to go nuclear.
The rogue world is watching. Iran in particular must be taking note of the international response to North Korea’s latest provocation. The two countries have allegedly cooperated on nuclear development. The al-Kibar nuclear facility in Syria that theIsraeli Air Force bombed in 2007 was purportedly funded by Iran and built and maintained by North Koreans. Iran’s nuclear mastermind Mohsen Fakhrizadeh-Mahabadi was reported present for North Korea’s 2013 nuclear test.
Tehran is counting down to “Implementation Day” for the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, a.k.a. the Iran nuclear deal, when tens of billions of frozen dollars will be released and sanctions will be lifted. There are no restrictions on how this money can be spent, and administration officials have admitted that it may be used to further destabilize a region in the grip of sectarian war. North Korea’s example shows Iran that they might as well invest it all in banned nuclear programs and push ahead for the bomb.
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The Obama administration has already shown its weakness in responding to Iran’s deal-breaking behavior. In October Iran tested an illegal ballistic missile, and on the last day of 2015 Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani ordered accelerated missile production in violation of numerous U.N. Security Council resolutions. None of this is covered by the new nuclear deal and should trigger a harsh response. However, the White House chose to delay punishing Iran for these violations, though Reuters reported that spokesman Josh Earnest said President Obama “would not stand in the way if U.S. officials deemed such measures useful” and if they would “benefit U.S. national security.” This frank abrogation of presidential leadership tells Tehran that anything goes.
How President Obama and other world leaders respond to the “H-bomb of justice” will send signals far beyond the Korean peninsula. If history is any judge, there will be some angry statements and expressions of concern, followed by inactivity until North Korea pushes the envelope again. And Tehran knows that if it tests an atomic weapon, it will get away with it just like Pyongyang.
James S. Robbins writes weekly for USA TODAY and is the author of The Real Custer: From Boy General to Tragic Hero.
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