Hillary Clinton’s fraying coattails: NRCC Study by Bob Salera

The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) is a political committee devoted to increasing the Republican majority in the U.S. House of Representatives.

She was once seen as the Democrats’ inevitable nominee for President. And down ballot Democrats publicly declared that with Clinton at the top of the ticket, they could take control of Congress. But Hillary Clinton’s campaign has been fading fast as socialist Senator Bernie Sanders continues to pick up momentum. Sanders’ unexpectedly strong showing in Iowa resulted in a tie. He then went on to deliver a crushing defeat to Clinton in New Hampshire. Now, new polls show that if the general election were held today, Clinton would likely lose to any Republican candidate. It is clear that even if Clinton hangs on to win the Democrat nomination, she will be a very damaged and unpopular general election candidate.

• Shortly after her party’s disastrous 2014 election cycle, House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi declared that with Hillary Clinton at the top of the ticket, Democrats could take control of the House.
  • At the time Pelosi made this bold statement, Clinton enjoyed a favorable rating of nearly 52%. Today, her favorability stands at 42%.
• Democrats bragged that they were using Clinton’s candidacy as a recruiting tool to convince top tier candidates to run for Congress, and pointed to New York, the state Clinton represented in the Senate nearly a decade ago, and Illinois, Clinton’s home state, as places where Hillary’s candidacy would especially help them.
• But recent polling shows that Clinton’s favorability is just as bad in multiple New York swing districts as it is nationally.
  • A January poll of NY-03 had Clinton’s favorability at 45% favorable, 52% unfavorable.
  • A February poll of NY-11 was even worse for Clinton, with 39% holding a favorable view of her, and 57% unfavorable.
• In Illinois, Clinton hasn’t been the recruiting tool the DCCC hoped she would be, as recruiting failures in two districts prompted Rothenberg & Gonzales to rate both IL-12 and IL-13 as Safe Republican for 2016.
• Things have only gotten worse for Clinton, as over the last 2 days, national polling of potential general election matchups have shown Clinton losing to every potential Republican opponent.
  • A USA Today/Suffolk poll released yesterday shows Clinton losing all four matchups tested, by as much as 11 points.
  • Today’s Quinnipiac University poll, showed Clinton losing to 4 of the 5 candidates tested, with her sole lead coming by a single point.

NRCC COMMENT: “Nancy Pelosi and House Democrats’ plan to ride Hillary Clinton’s coattails to a majority is in shambles as Clinton has become deeply unpopular among voters. Whether Democrats nominate FBI target Hillary Clinton or avowed socialist Bernie Sanders, House Democrats will be in serious trouble in November.” – Bob Salera, NRCC Spokesman

Background:

Pelosi: With Hillary, Dems can win House. “Rep. Nancy Pelosi says Democrats can recapture control of the House in 2016 by riding Hillary Clinton’s coattails. “Yes, we can win the House,” the California Democrat said during a sit-down interview in her Capitol office. “If she runs, she will win the nomination. And if she’s our nominee, she clearly — I mean, the campaign, the joint effort — would be one that could not only take her into office but would [pull Democrats to victory],” Pelosi said.” (Mike Lillis, The Hill, 1/27/15)

Democrats hope for Hillary coattails. “Her campaign is still in its infancy. The presidential election is nearly 18 months away. But Democrats are already banking on a “Hillary effect,” an anticipated wave that will lift the party’s fortunes up and down the ticket… Clinton’s campaign, however, could be a boon in some of the biggest and bluest states — like New York and Illinois — where Clinton has roots and is likely to outperform her national numbers.” (Kyle Cheney, Theodoric Meyer, and Elena Schneider, Politico, 5/27/15)

Poll: Rep. Dan Donovan is popular, seat is safe in coming election. Voters were also polled on their feelings for former Secretary of State and U.S. Senator Hillary Clinton as a presidential candidate, who was seen as 39 percent favorable-57 percent unfavorable. Clinton trails “The Republican Nominee” for president by 5 points (47 percent GOP Nominee-42 percent Clinton).” (Rachel Shapiro, Staten Island Advance, 2/15/16)

Illinois Filing Deadline Passes, Along With 2 Democratic Takeover Opportunities.“It’s not even 2016 yet, but the filing deadline for candidates in Illinois came and went on Tuesday. Democrats failed to recruit top-tier candidates in two competitive districts, which means the map Democrats drew after the last census will fall short of its desired intent once again… Illinois is an example of why Democrats are such long shots to win back the House next cycle. If they can’t maximize their gains in Illinois, they’ll have to make up for it elsewhere, likely in less friendly territory to net the 30 seats necessary for a majority.” (Nathan L. Gonzales, Roll Call, 12/4/15)

Poll: Sanders has slight edge over Clinton in matchups with GOP opponents.“Clinton loses by 2 points to Trump (43%-45%), 1 point to Cruz (44%-45%), 6 points to Rubio (42%-48%) and 11 points to Kasich (38%-49%). That’s a weaker standing than the former secretary of State showed in December’s survey, when she narrowly led Trump and Cruz and trailed Rubio by just 2 points.” (Susan Page and Jenny Ung, USA Today, 2/17/16)

Real Clear Politics: Clinton: Favorable/Unfavorable

Harper Polling: New York Congressional District 3 Survey

Quinnipiac University Poll: 2/18/16